Heartbreaker for the Mariners last night. Worse for them than for us. Still, not great for our MLB futures portfolio, which entered today as effectively a 75.14-unit bet on the Blue Jays to win the World Series at +179 odds. Not as good as the real price. Our portfolio’s in the hole.
We’ll work a little on that, and we’ll also work on Conference USA football. Away we go.
World Series
We really agree with the series price here, at least right now. We also mostly agree with the game spreads and totals. There are a few where we see slivers of value, though, and this is one of them. The Blue Jays are likely enough to win at least two games to make this worthwhile for us. It makes our worst case much worse, but we have to risk something.
Pick: Toronto +2.5 games (–240). 22.00 units to win 9.17.
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech
It’s a tough pair of games tonight, with Movelor only 0.4 and 1.3 points away from the respective spreads, which in Movelorland is meaningless. Louisiana Tech is the play Movelor likes most, and we’re going to take it, but not entirely blindly.
Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech both got smacked their last time out. For WKU, it came against an FIU team that had just recovered from injuries in the secondary, but not an FIU team that should have suddenly been 36.2 points better than expected. Basically, that game left us worried about WKU. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech’s flop came after their starting quarterback left the Kennesaw game hurt. No word on whether he’s available tonight, but again, it’s hard to imagine an injury to a Conference USA quarterback being worth more than a handful of points, which means even if he doesn’t play, Movelor’s largely adjusted, moving the Bulldogs down after that loss to KSU.
Add in that this is the favorite, the odds are a little short, and it’s an even field goal, and this is the best we’re going to do tonight. It’s tough out there.
Pick: Louisiana Tech –3 (–114). 5.28 units to win 4.63.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –442.50 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 848 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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