Nice little win yesterday by the Royals. That’s four straight MLB victories for us. We’re still averaging a –3% ROI on the calendar year, but we’re at least making up ground.
San Diego at Sacramento
I know. I don’t like picking the A’s either. But after two starts, Randy Vásquez’s xERA is almost four runs higher than his ERA, and even if you assume Fernando Tatís Jr. and Jake Cronenworth are both 100%, this flashes positive expected value. Mike Shildt indicated last night that neither will play today.
Pick: Sacramento to win –105. 15.00 units to win 14.29. Vásquez and Bido must start.
NL East
It wasn’t long ago that we were adding the Phillies in this market, saying bettors were over their skis about the Mets. Now, bettors have pivoted away from those same Mets to such a degree that there’s opportunity on them. This is part of what makes futures markets such a joy.
Pick: New York to win. +220. 2.00 units to win 4.40.
World Series
Meanwhile, there’s great value out there on the Tigers. We already have something on Detroit winning the AL Central. With value available on no new teams today besides the Mets, though, it becomes about the size of the value instead of the marginal probability increase that we’ll profit.
Pick: Detroit to win +3500. 2.00 units to win 70.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –85.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 256 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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