God bless Akron for scoring all those points yesterday and bringing Toledo along for the ride.
We’re still riding overs a little bit, and we’re still liking underdogs. We might be seeing ghosts, but that’s what keeps popping up on our radar. We’ve also got an F1 pick for tonight, despite mostly disliking F1. Don’t ask me why we’re betting it. Compulsion, I guess.
North Texas vs. UAB
A month and a half ago, these teams combined to score 125 points. In 2023, they memorably scored 129 in the NIT Championship. But in the lower-profile matchups, the totals have been higher, and even a 63-possession projection from kenpom today has this ending at 142. Maybe we’re getting suckered, but we can’t stay away.
Pick: Over 135 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon
Sticking with that 2023 NIT Final Four, I think Utah Valley’s getting a little disrespected here because Grand Canyon’s more of a brand and enjoys the reputational bonus of “having been there before.” The pair split their regular season meetings.
Pick: Utah Valley +4.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Australian Grand Prix
The polesitter won here in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, they only didn’t because of a brake failure. But, given Lando Norris’s struggles starting races, and given McLaren’s reported willingness to support Piastri equally to Norris this time around, this seems like pretty good value? If Piastri gets through the first few turns ahead, it’s suddenly his race to lose.
Pick: Oscar Piastri to win +325. 1.00 unit to win 3.25.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –115.52 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 139 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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