Tough stuff from Bryant last night, but great work by the Mariners. It’s no longer a question of whether our MLB futures portfolio will profit. It’s a question of how much profit we’ll make.
More futures today, plus a great college football Saturday.
NLDS: Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Shōta Imanaga’s struggled lately, but he’s going to be on the shortest leash imaginable. Jacob Misiorowski was filthy in Game 2, but he did have command issues and it’s fair to ask whether his composure is a vulnerability given how bizarrely he reacted to a third-inning groundout. Theoretically, the Brewers should show up to play, because this is a Pat Murphy-coached team. But shuffling the batting order is a strangely panicked move, and the Cubs’ bullpen has had a day to recover. With more upside on the Brewers in our portfolio, it’s easy for us to place this bet, which basically comes down to the Cubs’ better roster and a decent chance the Brewers are on their heels.
Pick: Chicago to win +127. 10.00 units to win 12.70.
NLCS
Again, our portfolio prefers the Brewers to win. One bonus there? It’s looking like the price on the Dodgers would be incredibly valuable until Game 1. CFP First Round levels of silliness in the markets.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –200. 4.00 units to win 2.00.
ALCS
There’s hardly any vig on the ALCS today, and while the Mariners are going to be exhausted going into Game 1, that’s probably overblown. The M’s are our top option overall, but Dodgers-over-Jays is a better scenario for our portfolio than Dodgers-over-Mariners. So this isn’t a total all-in move on Seattle.
Pick: Seattle to win +115. 2.00 units to win 2.30.
Alabama at Missouri
Maybe we’re squares, but we’re taking four of the five most talented teams in the country today. That starts with Alabama. We don’t trust them, but if they do show up in Columbia, it’s not going to be a one-possession game.
Pick: Alabama –3 (–120). 1.15 units to win 0.96.
Indiana at Oregon
Curt Cignetti will probably try to keep this as close as possible, for the optics. But Oregon should be able to make it at least a two-score affair. It’s hard to see how Indiana will combat the left side of Oregon’s offensive line.
Pick: Oregon –7 (–110). 1.05 units to win 0.95.
Texas vs. Oklahoma
I don’t know about overrated/underrated, but Oklahoma is certainly the most over-ranked team in the country now that the Penn State groupthink has been refuted. Even if John Mateer was at full strength here, the Longhorns would be the better bet. Their biggest risk is beating themselves.
Pick: Texas –2.5 (–105). 1.01 units to win 0.96.
Georgia at Auburn
Part of why Oklahoma’s over-ranked? Auburn has gotten a lot of credit so far for…beating Baylor? I’m not sure what Auburn’s gotten credit for. But Auburn’s gotten a lot of credit for something.
Pick: Georgia –3.5 (–122). 1.17 units to win 0.96.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –437.70 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 828 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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