For those wondering: Heat Index should arrive later this week. I know we started it on August 8th last year. I haven’t looked at how many days that was after the All-Star Break.
As for today…nothing very interesting. Not a lot at all, in fact. We don’t love the prices today.
Milwaukee at Atlanta
There’s a good chance this gets rained out, but if it doesn’t, Erick Fedde has a 9.11 FIP over his last six starts (and an even worse ERA). He’s walked thirteen, struck out eleven, and allowed nine home runs. It’s possible the Braves will figure something out—his last outing was his best since June, as he only allowed four runs while failing to make it out of the fifth inning—but the Brewers are scorching, the Braves have their tail between their legs, and if it starts after a delay, it’s hard to see that not favoring the team with confidence and motivation.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –139. 1.15 units to win 0.83. Priester and Fedde must start.
NL East
The value’s on the Phillies today in the NL East, and we’re taking it. We don’t love betting the active favorite in a two-way race like this—we’d rather get plus-money on both at various points—but thankfully, we’ve only previously gotten the Phillies as an underdog. This improves that situation for us overall.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –140. 4.00 units to win 2.86.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –488.66 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 551 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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