Two more losses last night, leaving our “spot”-based approach 44–34 against average odds of –120. That’s still good for a 3.46% eROI, but the eROI really differs depending on the day of the week, and that’s something that holds up going back a few years now for our MLB picks. On Sundays and Tuesdays, we’re strong. On the other five days of the week, we’re weak.
To account for this, we’re going to separate our Kelly criterion’s p-value (the probability we win each bet) from the “spot”-based approach’s track record. On Sundays and Tuesdays, it’ll be tied to a 15% expected ROI, the largest we’re comfortable giving ourselves credit for. On the other five days of the week, it’s going to be tied to a 1% expected ROI, which is all we can reasonably aspire to given our track record. When we get late enough into the summer to start Heat Index and Heat Index 2 (last year we started Heat Index on August 8th), we can revisit it, or we can revisit if other conditions change. But for now, we’re going relatively all-in on Sunday and Tuesdays.
That only goes for MLB moneylines. For our motorsports bets, we’re going to keep our p-value independent. Which is relevant today, because IndyCar’s Iowa doubleheader’s first race is this afternoon.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Mike Burrows has had some good outings, but he isn’t good enough to justify this line, even against the Twins’ bullpen. The Pirates have shown flashes of competitiveness, but only flashes.
Pick: Minnesota to win –128. 0.56 units to win 0.44. Burrows and Sands must start.
Atlanta at St. Louis
The Braves have their issues, but Erick Fedde is a disaster right now. Zero strikeouts and seven walks over his last two starts.
Pick: Atlanta to win –112. 0.49 units to win 0.44. Bummer and Fedde must start.
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Shohei Ohtani is a good pitcher, and he’s been a great one in these two-inning bursts. We like Emmett Sheehan too. But the bullpen game setup against a pitcher who’s had moderate success—Landon Roupp—shouldn’t leave the odds this long.
Pick: San Francisco to win +147. 0.30 units to win 0.44. Ohtani and Roupp must start.
Cleveland at Chicago (AL)
And finally, our anti-White Sox bet, which we finally feel comfortable placing now that the doubleheader’s through. The White Sox are a really bad team. The Guardians are mediocre but they aren’t really bad.
Pick: Cleveland to win –147. 0.64 units to win 0.44. Bibee and Burke must start.
Synk 275 (IndyCar at Iowa)
We’re waiting for qualifying to end here. Once it does, we’re going to bet on a Chevy engine to win. The loss at St. Louis was too fluky to get off that strategy at ovals. We think it’s overwhelming enough to not care too much about the odds.
Pick: Chevrolet to win (odds TBD). TBD to win 4.37. (Note: This ended up being an 8.96-unit bet at –205 odds.)
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –436.33 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 478 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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