Our “spot”-based approach has been strong overall and hot coming out of the All-Star Break. Today, though, we’re going with an under. We can’t find any spots we like. We’ll temper our unit a little bit to reflect this.
Toronto at Detroit
We were skeptical of Eric Lauer’s renaissance, but the sample size is growing and it does make some intuitive sense: Plenty of pitchers have rehabilitated themselves in Japan and Korea, and for as awful as Lauer’s 2023 was in Miami, it’s a small-sample awful. Across the totality of his pre-Korean career, he was a respectable starter.
Anyway, combine that with the undervalued Reese Olson starting for the Tigers and the Tigers’ offense averaging 2.6 runs per game over this recent skid (one laden with All-Star Game distraction), and we think the under’s the angle. At the moment, the storms are expected to come in during the late innings but pass through. We don’t think that necessarily hurts offense, but it shouldn’t help it.
Pick: Under 9 (–120). 0.92 units to win 0.77.
World Series
We’re running it back with the Mets today in the World Series market. Interestingly, there’s value available on both them and the Phillies, and that’s with the Braves’ odds down to effectively zero. What’s happening? The chances of the Dodgers not getting a bye are rising, and either of the two likeliest NL Central champions is going to be highly flawed. The Cubs have two starting pitchers. There’s a good chance the Brewers finish with a bottom-half offense by wRC+. That’s good news for whoever wins the East.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1300. 2.00 units to win 26.00.
AL East
And speaking of winning the East, we still like the Blue Jays to win the other East, even as an outright favorite. Four games isn’t everything—the Yankees are the better team on paper and face an easier schedule the rest of the way—but the Jays already owning the tiebreaker doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Toronto to win –120. 2.00 units to win 1.67.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –484.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 515 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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