We cooled off a bit over the weekend, losing units on both the NFL front and college basketball, but as long as we win either today’s college basketball play or our final Wild Card weekend pick, we’ll head into tomorrow still in the black over 2025.
Today will be quick again, because our college hoops play is about to tip off. In addition to that moneyline, we’re placing some early units for the NFL’s Divisional Round on the matchups which are already set.
NFL Divisional Round
Trusting FPI and using two points for home-field advantage led us to either a 3–3 or 2–4 record across the Wild Card round. Had that number been worse, we might be more hesitant to continue the practice into next week, but with the approach’s regular season success what it was (at least in the games we used it), we’re happy to put twenty units on each game again.
The only thing to note, then: We’re only putting ten of the twenty respective units on these games today. We aren’t betting on the lines moving in our favor. We suspect they might even move in the opposite direction, since we think part of our advantage is that we’re often fading public money in a large, sometimes inefficient market. Expect the remaining portions of these plays as the week goes on.
Pick: Texans +9 (–120). 10.00 units to win 8.33.
Pick: Commanders +9.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Bills +1 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
College Basketball
It isn’t pretty. These are painfully short odds. But moneyline favorites are what we’re currently betting, and on a night with very few games, this is the best we can offer. It should win, and that’s what we’re after. Boston College is a mess, and Notre Dame is showing signs of pulling it together soon.
Pick: Notre Dame to win (–665). 40.00 units to win 6.02.
**
2025: +38.71 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: 12% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 11 picks)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
