Good day yesterday, continuing what’s been a good string of results. Our “spot”-based approach is now 27–19 against average odds of –117. A lot of that is Tuesday and Sunday success, so we do need to be careful, but it’s encouraging, and it has us justifying some slightly larger bets.
San Diego at Philadelphia – Game 1
We were willing to chance it with Mick Abel on Friday, but we don’t need to today. Nick Pivetta’s solid if not very good, and with Cristopher Sánchez looming down on the Padres in Game 2, this is tailormade for a split. The odds reflect this for Game 2. They don’t really reflect it for Game 1.
Pick: San Diego to win –110. 4.81 units to win 4.37. Pivetta and Abel must start.
Houston at Colorado
Hunter Brown does have to pitch at elevation here, which is concerning, but this is still Hunter Brown against the Rockies. Brown probably isn’t as good as he’s been so far, but he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, something that continues to be overlooked because of two bad starts last April.
Pick: Houston to win –250. 10.93 units to win 4.37. Brown and Gomber must start.
ALCS
Another win for the Blue Jays, and this price is still there.
Pick: Toronto to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
World Series
We’re running this one back too. The Phillies are a dangerous anchor, because the Mets are far from out of the NL East and the Braves still have the talent, but they’re the best option we have. You can’t get a good postseason price on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Haven’t been able to since that year the Giants won 110 games or however many it was.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –415.79 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 442 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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