5–0 day yesterday. Surely, this will continue in perpetuity.
Cleveland at Chicago (AL)
The White Sox have been playing good ball, but not for long enough to stop them from being the White Sox. Joey Cantillo’s strikeout rate is eye-popping.
Pick: Cleveland to win –132. 1.18 units to win 0.89. Cantillo and Burke must start.
Miami at Atlanta – Game 2
There’s a weird psychology to doubleheaders, and in this one—in which the Braves trot out the beleaguered Erick Fedde for the nightcap—we think it goes like this: If the Braves win the first game, the default split should be in order. If the Braves win the second, the team that quit on itself months ago is as likely as any to phone it in and lose again.
This is marginal probability stuff. These aren’t blanket rules. But that’s our read on today’s proceedings in Georgia.
Pick: Miami to win –106. 0.94 units to win 0.89. Alcantara and Fedde must start.
Philadelphia at Texas
Jesús Luzardo’s struggled with the long ball lately, but so has Jacob deGrom. deGrom’s had a worse time with it, in fact.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +119. 0.75 units to win 0.89. Luzardo and deGrom must start.
Washington at San Francisco
Heat Index’s first choice remains the Giants. Expensive, but the Nationals sure didn’t look competitive last night.
Pick: San Francisco to win –157. 0.92 units to win 0.59. Lord and Whisenhunt must start.
New York (NL) at Milwaukee
Heat Index’s second choice remains the Brewers. No starting pitcher requirements on this one. Books that require those don’t have the line listed because the Mets haven’t announced their starter yet.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –118. 0.69 units to win 0.58.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –488.24 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 566 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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