Today’s Best Bets: Doubleheader Guardians

Let last night be a reminder to us all. You never know what Oklahoma State will do.


Game 2: Cleveland at Minnesota

Bailey Ober’s been better his last two trips out, but he’s had issues, and it’s hard to see the Twins getting up for Game 2 here. The Guardians will be up for it.

Pick: Cleveland to win –101. 0.92 units to win 0.91. Allen and Ober must start.

Seattle at Houston

Heat Index’s is going with the Mariners and Brewers again today. Mariners are the first choice.

Pick: Seattle to win –105. 0.96 units to win 0.91. Kirby and Valdez must start.

Milwaukee at St. Louis

The Brewers are the second.

Pick: Milwaukee to win –135. 1.23 units to win 0.91. Patrick and Mikolas must start.


Texas Tech at Utah

There’s plenty of reason to think highly of Joey McGuire, and over the long run, Texas Tech is formidable. But it’s hard to build a Big 12 contender with two new coordinators and a ton of roster turnover. Utah has its own turnover to deal with, but there’s more consistency there, and there’s the altitude piece, and Utah did play UCLA to start the year but there’s still a higher chance systems like Movelor haven’t found level yet on them. Texas Tech has lost against the Movelor spread.

Pick: Utah –3.5 (+100). 0.46 units to win 0.46.

Arkansas at Memphis

Over in a big AAC/SEC weekend, we aren’t ready to buy Arkansas at this high a price just yet. There’ll be a lot of Razorback fans in the Liberty Bowl, but Memphis isn’t worse enough than the Hogs to get a full touchdown and extra point at home.

Pick: Memphis +7 (–110). 0.50 units to win 0.45.

Tulane at Mississippi

In the other big AAC/SEC clash, we still believe in Mississippi and we think the market has a tendency to think Tulane’s more than it is. I like Jon Sumrall just fine, but I’m not sure 2022 wasn’t just a one-hit wonder, and that was under a previous regime.

Pick: Mississippi –11.5 (–110). 0.50 units to win 0.45.

West Virginia at Kansas

13 is a lot of points for this Kansas program. They’re always dangerous, but Rich Rodriguez’s Jacksonville State tenure made it look like he’s still got it, and last week’s comeback didn’t dispel that notion. You could get into momentum-builder vs. letdown game, but we’re not sure that doesn’t favor the Mountaineer side.  

Pick: West Virginia +13 (–110). 0.50 units to win 0.45.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –478.71 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 762 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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