We made up some ground on the futures portfolio last night. We’re doing a little ladder-ish approach tonight.
NCAA Tournament Championship
Michigan’s 8–2 against the rest of the current kenpom top ten. Their victories have come by an average of 19 points per win. That’s a little selective, and I’m reasonably scared of a Luke Murray gameplan and the Dan Hurley culture. But I don’t think enough’s being made of Michigan taking a flamethrower to Arizona on Saturday night. I think the better team wins here, and I’m willing to take the expensive odds on them to win big. If they lose, it’s a disaster for our portfolio. If they win but don’t cover, our portfolio finishes really badly. If they cover but don’t cover the alternate spread, we’re at least within normal bounds. If they cover the alternate spread, our portfolio profits, and we can breathe a sigh of relief before turning our eyes to the NBA Playoffs, the Stanley Cup Playoffs (and playoff chase), and baseball season.
Pick: Michigan to win –300. 65.00 units to win 21.67.
Pick: Michigan –7 (–108). 20.00 units to win 18.52.
Pick: Michigan –16.5 (+340). 10.00 units to win 34.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –562.36 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,114 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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