What a win by Houston. What a win for us!
No college basketball today. We’ll let our outstanding Houston futures ride. One MLB play, one in NASCAR. It’s an old southern man kind of afternoon.
Sacramento at Colorado
Chase Dollander makes his major league debut today, and while he’s a top prospect, this is also earlier than he was expected to debut. Still, this early in the season we don’t see a big difference between a pitcher making his season debut and his career debut. So, we aren’t going to classify that as a red flag. Everything else here points to the Rockies.
Pick: Colorado to win –113. 15.00 units to win 13.27. Estes and Dollander must start.
Goodyear 400
Ryan Preece has never performed all that well at Darlington, but a lot of those issues were qualifying. He’s starting second today, and his teammate—Brad Keselowski—won this race last year, suggesting RFK Racing knows its way around “The Lady in Black.”
Pick: Ryan Preece to finish top ten +110. 2.00 units to win 2.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –123.74 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 251 single-game markets plus one almost-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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