The Rams came through for us last night, and they did it in a big way. That saved us a 3–3 NFL weekend, and it left us with an encouraging +20.5 point differential on that weekend. We were closer to 4–2 than 2–4. That keeps us comfortable continuing the approach we’ve been using since Week 1, which is to trust FPI’s margins and use a 2.0-point number for home-field advantage.
As we wrote yesterday, we’re going to place two rounds of bets on these Divisional Round games. We’ll drop ten units on each early in the week and another ten later. We’re curious if the lines will move. If they don’t? Well, then we know.
NFL Divisional Round (Part 2)
The Eagles are the only favorite we’ve taken this round at the opening-ish odds, something I think mostly speaks to how good the Rams looked last night and how ready books are for public bettors to jump on Sean McVay vs. Nick Sirianni. We’re excited about the extra half-point here. This morning, it looked like we’d be getting it at six. The gap between 5.5 and 6.0 is larger than the one between 5.0 and 5.5.
Pick: Eagles –5.5 (–116). 10.00 units to win 8.62.
College Basketball
As for tonight: We’re rolling with Creighton. It’s been a rocky year so far for the Jays, but they played a brutal nonconference schedule, and a favorable Big East cadence has helped boost Providence’s reputation. As a refresher for those who missed our original explanation: The place we’ve found the most success in conference games in recent years is betting moneylines, even when the odds are uglily short. We look for teams we think expect to lose, at some level of consciousness, and we bet against those teams.
Pick: Creighton to win (–450). 40.00 units to win 8.89.
**
2025: +64.53 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: 16% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 13 picks)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
