Today’s Best Bets: Does Purdue Bounce Back?

Just tonight’s college basketball today. We’ll be back tomorrow with our second round of NFL conference championship picks, plus our weekend college basketball bets.

Michigan @ Purdue

The last time Purdue lost a home game, they won their next five games in a row. The time before that, they won their next nine in a row. The time before that, three in a row. It’s fickle stuff, but the idea of bouncing back well from frustrating defeats resonates with this program’s identity. We’ll give it a shot.

Pick: Purdue –3.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 151.5 (­–112). 10.00 units to win 8.93.

**

I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.

2025: –43.56 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 31 single-game markets)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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