Last night worked out well for us. Good note to end a mostly unsuccessful college football betting season.
Nothing on the NFL today, but we reserve the right to revisit it tomorrow. Just one college basketball game for us.
UCF at Iowa State
Terrible stuff Saturday from Iowa State at Cincinnati, but nothing so concerning as to hit the panic button. Yes, the program has history of skids under T.J. Otzelberger. But this is the best team Otzelberger’s had, and there isn’t anything obviously concerning from Saturday. Cincinnati played a really good game at home in a good spot. Iowa State still almost came back. Milan Momcilovic really might shoot 50% from three across the full season.
So, we’re in on the Cyclones to climb back up kenpom a little. That means covering the kenpom spread (12), something we think they do. UCF’s playing well, but this is a spot where the really good team bounces back.
Pick: Iowa State –14 (–110). 3.24 units to win 2.95.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –546.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,040 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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