On the bright side, our Broncos futures are technically alive.
On the other side, everything else happened.
On to the national championship, plus some futures maneuvering ahead of conference championship weekend.
Indiana at (?) Miami
On a neutral field, Movelor has this an 8.2-point game. At a Miami home game, Movelor has this a 5.2-point game. There’s a lot else to consider here, and we’re not saying Movelor’s the Bible on college football spreads, but this late in the year it has a strong track record. The wrinkle is that its approach to home-field advantage has always been pretty simplistic.
It’s tempting to get fancy, to do something like the Miami moneyline and an Indiana alternate spread, betting that Indiana won’t win by somewhere between 1 and 13 points. It’s tempting to play the live bet game with Miami’s occasional tendency to start hot and then lose focus, both in individual games and over the season as a whole. Instead, we’re going to play it straight, sticking with our gameplan and following Movelor. Even if there’s marginal home-field advantage, that makes Miami the play.
Pick: Miami +7.5 (–120). 6.92 units to win 5.77.
NFC Championship
We might have more as the week goes on, but at this point, we think markets are too confident in a team with a banged-up starting quarterback who hasn’t really been here before. (On the other side of the bracket, we don’t like how heavily favored that Patriots team is who we saw yesterday. Especially on the road.)
Pick: LA Rams to win +130. 10.00 units to win 13.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –552.62 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,039 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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