Another loss last night, leaving us spooked enough to take a college basketball breather (especially since we’re going out of town this weekend). Instead, here’s everything we’ve got for the NFL Divisional Round.
Buffalo at Denver
On the futures side, our only move is to put a few units on the Bills to win. If the Broncos and 49ers both lose, we’re not in a great place, but this would make it a little better.
Pick: Buffalo to win +100. 9.00 units to win 9.00.
San Francisco at Seattle
Houston at New England
LA Rams at Chicago
For spreads, we like all the visitors. Probably just a lack of nuance on our part with home-field advantage, but if that underdog effect was real last week (if recreational bettors were overconfident in favorites), some of that could help us here.
Pick: San Francisco +7 (–110). 7.03 units to win 6.39.
Pick: Houston +3.5 (–120). 7.67 units to win 6.39.
Pick: LA Rams –3.5 (–115). 7.35 units to win 6.39.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –521.57 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,036 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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