It’s football futures day. Baseball’s up first, though.
Minnesota at Texas
Tyler Mahle looked solid in his return for the IL. Against these Twins, that’s enough for us.
Pick: Texas to win –140. 5.28 units to win 3.77. Ober and Mahle must start.
Detroit at Cleveland
Heat Index’s second choice remains the Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland to win –137. 5.17 units to win 3.77. Melton and Messick must start.
Chicago (AL) at New York (AL)
It’s hard to see the Yankees losing this game. Carlos Rodón’s been a workhorse. Everything’s in front of them provided the Blue Jays lose at least one more time. They’re playing the White Sox, who do have upside but not enough for this price.
Pick: New York to win –293. 11.06 units to win 3.77. Martin and Rodón must start.
Colorado at Seattle
Heat Index’s first choice is the Mariners, and no, we don’t love that the day after they clinched, but the post-clinch hangover gets priced in pretty well. They also have a shot at the American League’s 1-seed, which isn’t nothing.
Pick: Seattle to win –230. 8.68 units to win 3.77. No starting pitcher requirements.
NLCS
We’re back on the Dodgers today on the futures side. FanGraphs technically isn’t showing this as positive-value, but it was showing 3-to-1 as positive value as recently as yesterday, the Mets/Reds situation hasn’t substantially changed, and this last weekend is when FanGraphs’s playoff odds get funky as the rest-of-season sample size makes the pitching shares in their model a poor representation of what they’ll be in October. When there are only 36 innings left, the percentage each inning represents is substantial.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +310. 4.00 units to win 12.40.
Seattle at Arizona
We roll again with FPI, which we think has the Cardinals an outright favorite here.
Pick: Arizona +2 (–110). 4.15 units to win 3.77.
Super Bowl
FPI loves the Lions, and it’s easy to see why. Yes, the Packers beat them head-to-head (and soundly), but so far there’s been a clear top three in the NFC, and the Lions are part of it.
Pick: Detroit to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
NFC
More on the Lions here, but also a little on the 49ers and Bucs, each of whom has a 3–0 record through 18% of the regular season. The market sometimes undervalues that.
Pick: Detroit to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +900. 1.00 unit to win 9.00.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1200. 1.00 unit to win 12.00.
AFC
We aren’t saying the Steelers will make the playoffs or win the AFC. But someone has to make the playoffs, and 33-to-1’s a good price on a team it’ll be hard to knock out of the Wild Card race.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +3300. 1.00 unit to win 33.00.
NFC South
Going back to the Bucs: Undervalued. The Falcons are overvalued, too, which introduces some longshot value on the Panthers in the event something bad happens in Tampa.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –350. 4.00 units to win 1.14.
Pick: Carolina to win +1500. 1.00 unit to win 15.00.
AFC North
Again, not saying they’ll win it, but I’m not sure people are taking their chances seriously enough. We’re 18% of the way through the season and among teams with healthy starting quarterbacks, they do lead the AFC North.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +475. 1.00 unit to win 4.75.
College Football Playoff
We’ve been trying to hold off on betting Big 12 and ACC teams to make the playoff, waiting until we have a better picture of the conference tiebreaker landscape built into our model. The value on BYU’s too good to pass up, though. Thankfully, we can dump a bunch onto Indiana as well, with the market slow to catch up to one of just five teams with better than a 50% playoff chance.
Pick: Indiana to make playoff +150. 4.00 units to win 6.00.
Pick: BYU to make playoff +800. 1.00 unit to win 8.00.
Heisman Trophy
We wrote yesterday about why Fernando Mendoza’s a bad Heisman favorite. Sparknotes there: Curt Cignetti’s probably going to try to keep the Oregon and maybe Penn State games very low scoring, choosing against turning Mendoza loose because he doesn’t want to get blown out. The truth is, there isn’t a good Heisman favorite right now, so we’re going to keep seeing guys slide in after big weeks. If LSU beats Mississippi, Garrett Nussmeier might be back. If Oregon beats Penn State, look for Dante Moore at the top of the list.
We are going to take a little Moore this week, with Oregon one of the likeliest teams to go undefeated. We don’t love it, but it’s a good price for a quarterback on one of the three best teams in the country, especially with that team high-scoring and the weapons around that quarterback more dispersed than they are at Ohio State.
We’re also taking Diego Pavia. Vanderbilt has three should–wins left on the schedule (Utah State, Auburn, Kentucky, all at home). Vanderbilt has two can–wins (LSU and Missouri, both at home). Vanderbilt has three should–by–no–means–wins (Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee, all on the road), but it isn’t inconceivable that the Commodores could finish 10–2, and even 9–3 might get them into the playoff if they can keep the losses respectable. College football writers love Diego Pavia. Even if John Mateer was healthy, Pavia would be Mateer with 50% of Mateer’s playoff shot.
Pick: Dante Moore to win +1100. 1.00 unit to win 11.00.
Pick: Diego Pavia to win +5000. 1.00 unit to win 50.00.
Army at East Carolina
Movelor only has ECU a 2.0-point favorite in this one, but: Army’s 1–2 against the Movelor spread so far this year, and Army’s one Movelor cover came against Kansas State, Movelor’s most underperforming FBS team so far this year. To be fair, one of Army’s losses came to Tarleton State, Movelor’s most overperforming D1 team so far this year, but after last year’s magic, it’s fair to expect a step backwards from the Black Knights. We’d be more surprised at this point if Movelor’s right about them than if Movelor’s two points too high.
(East Carolina’s 2–2 against Movelor’s spread. One of its failures to cover came by 1.2 points and the other came against BYU, who’s outperformed expectations. It’s more likely that Movelor’s undervaluing the Pirates than overvaluing them, though our best bet is that it’s found its level on ECU by now.)
Pick: East Carolina –4 (–110). 2.08 units to win 1.89.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –444.52 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 783 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
