Today’s Best Bets: Divisional Round, Part 2

We already placed half our bets for the NFL Divisional Round. Here were our early picks on most of the games, and here was our early pick for Rams vs. Eagles. Have lines changed since we placed those? The answer is…

NFL Divisional Round

Not significantly. We’re getting an extra half a point on the Bills. We’re giving up half a point on the Eagles. We’re settling for more expensive odds with the Commanders and getting cheaper odds on the Texans.

Still fun, though!

Pick: Texans +9 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Commanders +9.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Eagles –6 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Bills +1.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.

College Basketball – Friday

We don’t really trust either of these teams. That makes us nervous, especially coming off last night’s loss. But, our long-term data on these kinds of picks is still good enough to make this our best course of action.

We do trust Providence and Indiana. We trust neither to be that good. Providence got propped up a little by a providential (hehe) homestand against Butler and Seton Hall. Indiana could absolutely heat up, but that is a disaster of a basketball team under Mike Woodson. They haven’t beaten an NCAA Tournament team all year.

So, these are our horses tonight. Two underachievers. Buckle up.

Pick: Villanova to win (–460). 40.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Ohio State to win (–350). 40.00 units to win 11.43.

College Basketball – Saturday & Sunday

No big differences in approach here, except that we don’t know yet what odds will be available. We’ll update this post tomorrow and Sunday morning.

Rationale…

  • UConn’s not as good as it’s been the last few years, but it’s still competent. Gameplanning isn’t a problem with that coaching staff.
  • Oklahoma got a little life into themselves during the second half on Wednesday. Porter Moser’s in a tough situation, but South Carolina is not good.
  • Similarly, Rice isn’t good, and FAU isn’t bad. They just put up a stinker on Wednesday. Last weekend, they played fine in their loss to UAB.
  • I trust Baylor, and Baylor’s great at home. TCU hasn’t shown signs of ceasing to be a mess.

Pick: UConn to win (–350). 40.00 units to win 11.43.
Pick: Oklahoma to win (–320). 40.00 units to win 12.50.
Pick: FAU to win (–500). 40.00 units to win 8.00.
Pick: Baylor to win (–1100). 40.00 units to win 3.64.

**

I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year. If we get it done before the end of the weekend, we’ll update this post.

2025: +67.33 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025: 11% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 18 games)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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