Our “spot”-based approach is now 70–50 against average odds of –115, good for a 9.14% expected return. That’s great, and we’re happy about it, and we also haven’t gained that many units. We’re also cognizant of the fact that advantages are hard to keep in single-game betting markets.
In other words, if you liked Heat Index last year, don’t fret. We started it on August 8th and we might do that again.
Detroit at Philadelphia
There are two problems for the Tigers with this one. The first is that Jack Flaherty—despite some recent progress—is having kind of a bad year. The second is that the Tigers just aren’t that good. On paper (i.e., FanGraphs Depth Charts), they’re the tenth-best roster in the majors, with an offense expected to perform in the bottom half of the league the rest of the way, accounting for quality of opponent. Meanwhile, Ranger Suárez—despite some recent lags—is Ranger Suárez. The Phils should win this one.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –145. 2.26 units to win 1.56. Flaherty and Suárez must start.
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay
Down in Florida, I think we’re getting the Dodgers at a good price. I know I’ve said that a lot the last couple months, and I know they’ve been surprisingly bad, but the Rays just endured a long rain delay, lost, sold a few major leaguers (while admittedly getting some good major-league pieces in return), and remain the worst team in baseball since that night they allowed 22 runs to the Orioles. We know we shouldn’t count out a Rays surge, but their history is probably leading that probability to be overstated.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –125. 1.95 units to win 1.56. Kershaw and Baz must start.
World Series
It’s easy to overrate the Padres’ deadline activity, confusing quantity for quality and neglecting the value of the players who’ll lose at-bats and innings. That doesn’t seem to be what markets are doing. This is a great price for a team highly likely to make the playoffs and not as far out of the division race as I think people realize.
Pick: San Diego to win +2000. 2.00 units to win 40.00.
ALCS
Meanwhile, there were a few games yesterday, and the Yankees won one of them, keeping them at the front of the Wild Card race (valuable for home-field considerations) and within striking distance of the Blue Jays. They’re not dead yet, and it’s been hard to find value on them for most of the summer.
Pick: New York to win +450. 2.00 units to win 9.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –482.95 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 537 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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