We’re taking the day off from NHL and NBA futures, not because the second round smacked our NHL futures around, but because of time constraints and the likelihood odds don’t change much between today and tomorrow. That said, the second round smacked our NHL futures around. We’ve got a bit of a hole to dig out of on that front.
Our daily MLB moneyline today, plus our weekday MLB futures. NBA and NHL futures will return tomorrow.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Nick Lodolo’s good, but that’s pretty baked into this line. Mitch Keller’s also good, is coming off one of his best starts of the year, and has a lot more bullpen available after Paul Skenes ate innings yesterday. The Pirates are bad, but they’re not as bad as the Rockies or last year’s White Sox, teams you just probably shouldn’t bet on.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +115. 15.00 units to win 17.25. Lodolo and Keller must start.
World Series
The Twins are only available at 14-to-1 to win the ALCS, but they’re available at 55-to-1 to win the World Series. That implies only a 27% chance the Twins win the World Series if they make it.
Pick: Minnesota to win +5500. 2.00 units to win 110.00.
NLCS
Similarly, the Cardinals are only available at 4-to-1 to win the NL Central, implying they’d enter the playoffs with only a 7% chance of winning the pennant if they did win the division. That neglects Wild Card possibilities, which exist. Another line that will probably update as the week goes on, but that we want to grab while it’s here.
Pick: St. Louis to win +7000. 2.00 units to win 140.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –240.41 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 335 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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