We’ve won two straight college basketball plays.
Nobody move.
Nebraska at Michigan
I think the (justified) excitement around this game has gotten in the way of something tangible: These teams have two real good defenses.
The volatility should be high with this total. Nebraska shoots a lot of threes. Michigan’s probably going to take their looks tonight as well. There’s a chance this gets into the 180’s and we get a classic that leaves us just giddy when we finally turn to Purdue vs. Indiana at 8:45 PM Central. But unfortunately, the probability both offenses click isn’t that high. Call it an emotional hedge, I guess.
Pick: Under 157 (–110). 3.49 units to win 3.17.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –598.57 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,049 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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