Good day on the racetrack yesterday, bad day on the diamond.
Toronto at Baltimore
We’re getting to the time of the season where you can see 50/50-ish odds between a playoff contender and a non-playoff contender and bet on the contender. It’s risky, and there are a ton of qualifiers, but the Blue Jays check all the boxes as they face Zach Eflin in his second start post-IL.
Pick: Toronto to win –111. 1.14 units to win 1.03. Bassitt and Eflin must start.
Atlanta at Kansas City
Rich Hill against Spencer Strider, and we…like Rich Hill?
At this price, of course.
The thing with this year’s Braves is that they don’t take care of business. Strider’s one of the best things they’ve got going—even with some struggles of his own—but this is still a game where they deserve no trust at all. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the still-crafty Hill hold them in check.
Pick: Kansas City to win +149. 0.69 units to win 1.03. Strider and Hill must start.
Miami at St. Louis
The Marlins aren’t getting the “hot” treatment in the markets, and Edward Cabrera’s mostly nullified injury scare seems to still be getting some credit. Encouraging aspects exist within Andre Pallante’s last three starts, but he also allowed 17 earned runs across those outings.
Pick: Miami to win –103. 1.06 units to win 1.03. Cabrera and Pallante must start.
New York (NL) at San Diego
We seem primed for a Frankie Montas letdown, as they guy keeps getting away with it for the Mets. Dylan Cease, meanwhile, is available at a discount in betting markets thanks to his presence in trade markets. It’s nothing new. It might be contributing to his slightly underwhelming year, but that should be baked in by this point in the summer.
Pick: San Diego to win –126. 1.29 units to win 1.02. Montas and Cease must start.
Seattle at Sacramento
The A’s did just sweep the Astros over four games in Houston, but it’s been the Luis Castillo of old lately for the Mariners. Over his last five starts he’s gone nearly 30 innings, striking out 32 and only walking six. With no home runs over that stretch (a big shift from the starts preceding those five), that’s good for a 1.74 FIP. Selective sample, but not necessarily meaningless. Four of those five teams are probably going to make the playoffs.
Pick: Seattle to win –111. 1.14 units to win 1.03. Castillo and Sears must start.
World Series
Quick! Before they catch up!
In seriousness, some books have the Rangers off the board right now. They’re humming. So, with nothing else on them in the postseason markets in our portfolio, we’re grabbing them while they’re here.
Pick: Texas to win +4000. 2.00 units to win 80.00.
NL East
This is lower value, but it’s still positive value. The Mets are in pole position in the NL East. From our portfolio’s perspective, this flips the Mets to our preferred NL East option. That’s kind of the point.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –120. 2.00 units to win 1.67.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.18 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 525 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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