If only the Reds had closed that out yesterday…
But they did not, and we continue onwards, placing bets our historic track record indicates are going to lose. As we wait, then, for our NBA futures portfolio to resolve itself tonight…
Detroit at Tampa Bay
We got burned betting against Zack Littell recently, but the guy’s allowed eight home runs over his last four starts and has somehow allowed only eleven runs in those outings. That has to regress.
Pick: Detroit to win –101. 1.01 units to win 1.00. Mize and Littell must start.
Arizona at Colorado
Two pitchers in the major leagues have thrown more than 60 innings this year and sport an xERA above 7.00. Both are pitching today in a game played at Coors Field.
Pick: Over 12.5 (–115). 3.45 units to win 3.00.
Houston at Anaheim
Longtime Kyle Hendricks fan here:
I hope the recent surge holds. I’m afraid it won’t. I think even if it does, markets are underestimating a good Astros team here.
Pick: Houston to win –113. 1.13 units to win 1.00. Gusto and Hendricks must start.
The Great American Getaway 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono)
Kyle Larson hasn’t been great at Pocono in the NextGen car, but his long-term track record there is strong enough to trust him. The guy’s 11-for-16 on finishing in the top ten this season, with three of the misses coming at road courses and superspeedways. Mediocre qualifying and all, you can probably trust him.
Pick: Kyle Larson to finish top ten –175. 5.25 units to win 3.00.
XPEL Grand Prix at Road America (IndyCar)
Only two drivers have won IndyCar races this season. One starts second today. One starts third. But for as impressive as Kyle Kirkwood’s been (and as exciting as it is to see a non-Newgarden American succeeding in IndyCar), Alex Palou’s not only been stronger, but he has the stronger history. Kirkwood’s Detroit win raises eyebrows more than St. Louis, since ovals and road courses are so different. But we need to see a little more. We think Palou gets Kirkwood back here.
Pick: Alex Palou to win +100. 3.00 units to win 3.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –403.20 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 405 single-game markets plus two completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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