Frustrating day yesterday. I wonder if there’s more variability around totals when the spread’s wider. Thinking specifically about the ending of UConn/Seton Hall (and later, in unpublished bets, the ending of St. Thomas/North Dakota last night). Anyway, two more overs today. We’re going back to them.
North Alabama at Lipscomb
With some conference tournaments, we can see why the total might be lower. The arena is unfamiliar. The arena is larger and empty. The teams involved are tired. With this one, though, it’s happening on a home court and the teams have had a normal amount of rest. We don’t see why this should be lower than the kenpom total, which is 147.
Pick: Over 142 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Drake vs. Bradley
Over at Arch Madness, those other variables do apply. This is these teams’ third game in three days, and the Enterprise Center hasn’t seen great shooting this weekend. At this point, though, shouldn’t players be getting used to their surroundings? And doesn’t fatigue affect defense as well?
I always mean to do some research on conference tournaments and scoring trends. Maybe I’m missing something fundamentally obvious. But this is a really low number, even for a game expected to have a possession count in the 50’s.
Pick: Over 118.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix
We’re keeping our unit small, but we’re continuing our motorsports bets. It works with our schedule, and we’re intrigued by the potential for potential, just given how many markets there are and how many variables are at play.
For now, we’re doing a lot of eyeballing, and by the eyeball test, Josh Berry’s situation looks good. Team Penske does well at Phoenix, and the Wood Brothers #21 is effectively Team Penske’s fourth car. Berry himself doesn’t have a ton of Cup Series experience, but he ran fine enough here last year for Stewart-Haas, and starting on the second row is an advantage at a track where there usually aren’t a ton of cautions. We’ll take this little shot.
Pick: Josh Berry to finish Top Ten (+150). 1.00 unit to win 1.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –83.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: XX single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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