For a specific kind of Indiana sports fan, today’s a special day. We’ve got the first conference tournament games in college basketball. We’ve got the first IndyCar race of the season.
Our motorsports track record is admittedly poor, but we’re going to keep betting NASCAR, IndyCar, and F1, mostly because this new approach we adopted at the turn of the year allows us to properly size the units. We’ll see where and how it goes, but until it’s dramatically affecting our overall results, we’ll keep trying.
Memphis at UAB
I’m surprised by this line. Memphis isn’t as good as their record, but they’re healthy, they don’t have any particularly bad track record against Andy Kennedy, and they beat this UAB team by 23 back in Memphis in January. UAB’s kenpom rating is about the same now as it was back then.
The one angle I can think of which would explain a whole three-point shift away from kenpom’s spread is bettors thinking the Dain Dainja/Yaxel Lendeborg rivalry will help UAB. I agree it could insert some chaos into this game, but three points is a lot of points.
Pick: Memphis –1 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
North Florida vs. Austin Peay
Matthew Driscoll and Corey Gipson have coached against one another three times. All three times, both teams have scored at least 89 points.
This is an extremely cherry-picked stat. Both of last year’s matchups went to overtime. I’ve half a mind to think that’s why this total is a couple points lower than where kenpom has it—bettors over-anticipating the over-simplistic thought. For our purposes, we like the over because neither team plays any defense, North Florida plays with its hair on fire, and single-elimination play sometimes provokes coaches to foul more aggressively down the stretch (in an effort to extend the game) than they do most of the year. Maybe we’re reading too much into that last piece. Even without it, though, we trust the fundamentals.
Pick: Over 158 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
NASCAR Cup Series at Austin
In NASCAR’s three trips to the Circuit of the Americas, Kyle Larson’s never finished better than 14th. At road courses last season, though, Larson won twice and took the pole at the Chicago Street Course, where he ended up wrecking.
Unlike some of the road course ringers, Larson’s racing for points here. He’s adept at racing these kinds of tracks, he’s always going to have one of the best cars, and he’s always going to be one of the two best drivers in a NASCAR race, if not the best. Maybe we’re underrating the uncertainty, but we like the value on a top five finish.
Pick: Kyle Larson to finish Top 5 (+120). 1.00 unit to win 1.20.
IndyCar at St. Petersburg
Will Power starts in the middle of the field today, but there’s a Penske on the pole—implying the team brought a good setup to Florida—and he’s got seven podiums in sixteen early-season trips to St. Pete, including two in the last three years. It’s a moderate longshot, because it’ll require him to pass a teammate unless Penske’s going to sweep the top three, but 5-to-1 on Power to place? At St. Pete? That’s not a bad draw.
Pick: Will Power to finish Top 3 (+500). 1.00 unit to win 5.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –74.33 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 110 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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