We’re hunting overs today, since we’re 10–1 over our last eleven and our long-term track record isn’t good enough on any college basketball to outweigh the short-term. What this means, in practice, is that we went through today’s games in decreasing order of kenpom thrill score, and once we found two overs we liked, we stopped.
Clemson at SMU
The first one is Clemson’s trip to SMU. Kenpom’s projecting 66 possessions in this one. Even if it’s down at 63 possessions, though—SMU’s slowest non-UVA game this season—we’d only need each team to reach 1.16 points per possession to win. That’s a lot, of course. It’s a big number. But Clemson’s reached it in more than half their ACC games, and SMU’s got an offense every bit as effective as Clemson’s.
Boopie Miller might still be out, but that impact is likely overrated. He’s integral to the Mustang offense, but using EvanMiya’s numbers, it doesn’t seem SMU is actually ineffective when he’s off the court. There’ve been mixed results on that the last two games—SMU’s offense stunk against Wake Forest, then was great against Notre Dame—but we think markets are overvaluing the potential lack of Miller.
Pick: Over 146 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Oregon at Wisconsin
In Madison, the concern here is the early tip for Oregon. 9:00 AM on their body clocks. Does that really favor the under, though? Maybe sometimes. But against an offense that’s humming like Wisconsin’s, I think the bigger concern is this turning into a blowout.
We’re not picking Wisconsin to blow Oregon out. We’re hunting overs, not favorites. But we do like this to turn into that kind of game, and if it doesn’t, there’s a 50/50 chance it’s because Oregon keeps up, as opposed to the Ducks mucking Wisconsin up.
Pick: Over 154 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –65.62 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 93 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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