We got away with one last night.
NCAA Tournament
Unfortunately, still no NIT odds in the books we reference for these. But, we like what we’re seeing on Purdue to reach the Sweet Sixteen, so we’ll use that to try to cover one of our longshots, and we really like the price on Illinois to win it all. Their path isn’t terrible, and the stat about being well-rounded is probably overhyped. NCAA Tournaments are a weird, small sample.
Pick: Purdue to make Sweet Sixteen –300. 15.00 units to win 5.00.
Pick: Illinois to win NCAA Tournament +2200. 5.00 units to win 110.00.
Sam Houston at New Mexico
Rather than chase the overs again tonight (the market seems to know about those), we’re going to another guiding principle of recent NIT’s:
Lot of close games.
We have plenty of respect for New Mexico, but it’s hard to blow out a team you haven’t seen before on short notice in a weird postseason environment.
Pick: Sam Houston +12.5 (–105). 4.16 units to win 3.96.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –569.52 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,102 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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