Fair warning: The bottom might be falling out of these.
And we were already down to begin with.
Sacramento at Minnesota
Heat Index’s first choice is also a spot-based play. Any charitable view of José Ureña has to be based on a selective, small, recent sample. That same approach boosts perceptions of Jackson Perkins. We think bettors are hesitant to take the A’s to pull off a sweep. At this stage in the season, that’s a plausible outcome.
Pick: Sacramento to win –113. 0.51 units to win 0.45. Perkins and Ureña must start.
Texas at Kansas City
Patrick Corbin’s had a rough couple weeks. Is reality setting in? We actually don’t think so, and we’re concerned about the Royals’ bullpen availability. But Bobby Witt Jr.’s playing like the best player in baseball, which he might be, and the Royals are increasingly competitive while the Rangers slide. We think KC takes this series.
Pick: Kansas City to win –112. 0.27 units to win 0.24. Corbin and Lorenzen must start.
Milwaukee at Chicago (NL)
Heat Index’s second choice again shares status as a spot-based pick. Quinn Priester’s kryptonite has been home runs lately, but the wind’s blowing in today and the Cubs have a guy with a broken hand in the 2-hole, which is a weird choice given that guy’s not exactly performing through the injury.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +124. 0.36 units to win 0.45. Priester and Imanaga must start.
Boston at New York (AL)
Lucas Giolito’s volatile enough that it wouldn’t be surprising for him to go out there and shove. But the Yankees are clicking again, the Red Sox aren’t, and Luis Gil doesn’t need to pitch deep into this one for the home team to face a good chance.
Pick: New York to win –138. 0.33 units to win 0.24. Giolito and Gil must start.
World Series
Another great day for the Tigers yesterday, and their price is unchanged. We’ll take it.
Pick: Detroit to win +1000. 4.00 units to win 40.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –496.06 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 616 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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