Another bad performance yesterday. Champ Week really got us this year.
Two more picks for today, plus our one NASCAR unit for the week.
Florida vs. Tennessee
Florida is playing spectacular basketball right now, and that’s why we like Tennessee here. It’s hard to see Florida playing beyond what it’s recently done. Tennessee, on the other hand, has some upside left, and the Vols have been playing pretty darn well themselves, rising to fifth in kenpom. We acknowledge Florida’s the better team, but Tennessee’s been overshadowed in this year’s SEC.
Pick: Tennessee +5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Memphis vs. UAB
We love UAB, but Memphis is better than UAB. Predictive systems are really low on the Tigers relative to the polls, but kenpom still has this a seven-point line and Torvik has it at 4.8. Yes, Tyrese Hunter’s presumably out for Memphis. But Memphis, though not a great team, is well-rounded. Hunter’s absence makes them worse but shouldn’t be lethal.
Pick: Memphis –3.5 (–109). 10.00 units to win 9.17.
NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas
Hendrick Motorsports has won this race four times in a row, and while one of those was extremely lucky, I think it was before the NextGen car? If not, it was the NextGen car’s first year.
Either way, Hendrick runs well at Las Vegas, Hendrick qualified well yesterday, and Chase Elliott might not be what he once appeared to be, but he’s not a bad driver. We like this value as we try to make it two NASCAR wins in a row.
Pick: Chase Elliott to beat Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Busch (+340). 1.00 unit to win 3.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –136.52 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 142 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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