More apologies. We’re back, at least for the day. Here’s the rundown:
- We’re letting our college football futures ride. Montana State winning helped. Ohio State losing hurt. We still have one unit outstanding on Mississippi to win it all (at 40-to-1), but everything else has netted to about a 10% profit.
- We’ll have more NFL futures tomorrow or Saturday, but thanks to the Steelers (and possibly that priest), we profited on the regular season. So, good shape there.
- We’re still too out of the loop on college basketball to really start betting on it. Hopefully in a couple days we’ll be a little more keyed in and can get into the swing of that.
- We’re going to reevaluate our NHL, NBA, and college basketball futures approaches and get those underway as the winter goes on. Or, in the NHL’s case, back underway. We have four units out there, I believe, and I don’t remember exactly what they’re on. Hopefully they’re doing well!
Now, for tonight and tomorrow’s college football.
Mississippi vs. Miami
Indiana vs. Oregon
We’re lumping these together because we’re using the same approach for each: We’re going to trust Movelor. So far in this year’s playoff, that’s been the better move for us, and while we have questions about every single team left, we’re going to err on the side of underthinking. Our numbers are very close to the betting markets. Movelor has Indiana favored by 2.0 and Miami by 1.3. But we’re going to trust our model, hoping that any internal leanings to the contrary are a piece of the same potential groupthink which has pulled these to where they stand.
Pick: Mississippi +3 (+100). 14.40 units to win 14.40.
Pick: Oregon +3.5 (–105). 15.12 units to win 14.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –489.05 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,024 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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