The Blue Jays lost, South Carolina was a near miss, and our hopeful start turned into only a 5–4 day. But we profited, and we still know North Dakota State.
It’s a smorgasboard today. Off we go.
World Series
The Blue Jays only need to win one more game for this to cash. We’re still not out of the woods—at the moment, our portfolio only profits on the season if the Blue Jays win the series—but winning this would get us a lot closer, with Dodgers in 7 a scenario we’d be able to hedge out of and Dodgers in 6 a scenario that at least cashes bets like this.
Pick: Toronto +2.5 Games –375. 39.08 units to win 10.42.
Green Bay at Pittsburgh
It’s been a rough couple weeks for our blindly–trust–FPI–in–primetime–games strategy. Rough enough that we’ve started reducing our unit and we’re keeping an eye on whether a full pivot is necessary. For now, more FPI.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3 (–120). 7.32 units to win 6.10.
Xfinity 500 (NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville)
We think Kyle Larson’s available at a little bit of a discount here, and we think that’s because he’s already in position to reach the next playoff round. The problem is that if someone other than Chase Briscoe or Denny Hamlin wins, he isn’t in position to reach the next playoff round. He’s a point behind Christopher Bell. He needs this win. Not as badly as William Byron, but bad enough that he’s not primarily playing wingman.
Pick: Kyle Larson to finish top 3 +200. 2.29 units to win 4.58.
Mexican Grand Prix
Both Ferraris qualified in the top three, and while Max Verstappen is lurking, Lando Norris has a history of being skittish under pressure. The odds of things going right for both those guys and Charles Leclerc aren’t this high.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton to finish top 3 +120. 3.81 units to win 4.57.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –451.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 861 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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