We split our MLB moneylines yesterday, but that still leaves our recent “spot”-based approach 35–21 against average odds of –117, good for a 15.96% average expected return. With our Sunday multiplier (our MLB moneyline picks perform roughly twice as well on Sundays and Tuesdays), that would lead us to, while calculating our Kelly criterion, use a p-value tied to a 25% expected return. That’s too high. Even just trusting recent track record is highly aggressive, something we’re only doing because we’re only including a portion of our bankroll instead of the real whole thing. We’re going to instead cap it at 15%, which is about the highest our average ROI ever got during the earliest iterations of these bets.
For motorsports, we still haven’t gone back through and tallied up our average return this year. We’re using 8.7% as the expectation today because 1) it’s as believable as anything else and 2) it leads to some convenient numbers in our real-world bets. Full transparency: It’s pretty arbitrary.
Kansas City at Arizona
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is pretty fresh, but they just aren’t a good enough team to justify this kind of price in a Sunday bullpen game. Michael Lorenzen doesn’t need to be lights out for the Royals to have a chance in this one.
Pick: Kansas City to win +136. 11.33 units to win 15.41. Lorenzen and DeSclafani must start.
Houston at Los Angeles
The Dodgers have only been swept twice this year, once in a two-game series. The Astros have only swept three opponents this year, one in a two-game series. This is pricey, but we like the Dodgers to take care of business and salvage some pride. We believe in the killer instinct, though we think it might be more an effect of managerial approach.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –195. 30.03 units to win 15.40. Gusto and Sheehan must start.
St. Louis at Chicago (NL)
At Wrigley, the winds won’t favor hitters, which is good news for the beleaguered Erick Fedde. Still, Fedde’s struggling. Even taking away the home runs, he’s walking almost as many batters as he strikes out and he’s allowing some of the hardest contact in baseball. Matthew Boyd’s health is hard to trust, and the Cubs’ pitching staff as a whole is a treacherous beast. But when Boyd’s healthy, he’s good.
Pick: Chicago to win –195. 30.03 units to win 15.40. Fedde and Boyd must start.
ALCS
The Blue Jays keep winning, the Yankees keep losing, and markets keep reacting slowly.
Pick: Toronto to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
NLCS
And across the way, our old standby. The Mets are back to life but we aren’t in bad shape on the Mets.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
British Grand Prix (Formula 1)
We’re posting this really late, so apologies for that. This is more about tracking than anything else, and being transparent with a loser. We thought Verstappen from the pole at 2-to-1 was great value. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. Either way, he lost, and we are losing 4.47 units on this.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +200. 4.47 units to win 8.94.
Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio (IndyCar)
These are really short odds for IndyCar, even for a polesitter, but Palou is going untouched these days. Winning two out of three races is a pretty reasonable expectation, especially away from ovals.
Pick: Alex Palou to win –200. 17.87 units to win 8.94.
Grant Park 165 (NASCAR Cup Series)
Again here, we like the guy on the pole. It’s very possible something goes wrong for Shane Van Gisbergen today, but if his team can put together a straightforward race, he’ll win. The odds of that happening are closer to 50% than 45%. They might even be on the other side of 50%.
Pick: Shane Van Gisbergen to win +125. 7.15 units to win 8.94.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –377.32 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 452 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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