Got swept last night. A little college football today, plus one college basketball underdog.
Ohio State at Purdue
Purdue’s been decent against Movelor’s spread this year, and Ohio State operates as a defense-first team. It’s that last part that we think is keeping this spread as close as it is. Ohio State’s 30 points better than a lot of teams.
Pick: Ohio State –29 (–110). 3.63 units to win 3.30.
Oregon at Iowa
A lot of people wrote Oregon off after the Indiana loss. They’re not bad, though, and they’re not as badly built for bad weather as their stereotype suggests. Chance for a statement win here.
Pick: Oregon –6 (–105). 3.46 units to win 3.30.
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina’s on a little roll. Georgia State’s one of the worst teams in the FBS. We’re going to trust our numbers here and not bank on mean regression.
Pick: Coastal Carolina –7.5 (–108). 3.56 units to win 3.30.
Wake Forest at Virginia
Is Virginia great? No. Is Virginia good? Yes. Wake Forest is fine and competitive, but UVA should be able to cover this number.
Pick: Virginia –6.5 (–109). 3.60 units to win 3.30.
Navy at Notre Dame
I think the American might backload Navy’s schedule on purpose. It gets more attention if Navy’s 7–0 having played nobody. Now, they’re 7–1 having played North Texas, and they’re still really bad. We obviously respect the hell out of them, but they’re not anywhere near what their record suggests.
Pick: Notre Dame –28 (–105). 3.46 units to win 3.30.
San Jose State at UC Santa Barbara
Have we won one of these yet this week? No. No, we haven’t.
Pick: San Jose State to win +361. 2.19 units to win 7.91.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –474.05 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 885 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
