Today’s Best Bets: Can Minnesota Knock Off Oregon?

Still no futures. Will try to get this week’s football futures done tomorrow and Sunday. Otherwise, more catching up next week.


Manhattan at Hawaii

We’re going with kenpom here, thinking this is a game the books are probably ready to get a lot of action on (because it’s the last one of the night) and that the action will probably favor Hawaii (because they’re pretty good this year, and bettors like being early on that kind of thing). The Jaspers didn’t look bad in their first game of this Honolulu trip.

Pick: Manhattan +16 (–103). 2.33 units to win 2.26.


Minnesota at Oregon

This is goofy, but if Oregon’s going to get trapped, tonight would be the night. Short week. Emotional win last week. Team that can play alligator ball and pull you into the muck. Do we think it’ll happen? No. Do we like this long of odds on a night where Movelor’s pretty in line with the markets? Yeah. Also, it’s fun.

Pick: Minnesota to win +1256. 2.33 units to win 29.26.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –499.64 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 898 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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