Well, we learned that overs are not guaranteed to hit right now. But we did at least get one of last night’s plays. What we’re in on this evening…
Marquette @ Villanova
Kenpom’s got this at 64 possessions. Marquette’s only played one game that slow or slower all year. That doesn’t mean kenpom’s wrong—our default assumption is always that kenpom is right—but it shows how slowly Villanova plays. In the end, we do suspect that Marquette will try to make Villanova uncomfortable with the pace, and we suspect that bettors are making too little of a generally respectable Villanova offense just because it bled out on the court against UConn. Kenpom has this at 64 possessions, and it still has the total at 144. We’ll take it.
Pick: Over 142 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Michigan State @ Michigan
I’m tempted by the moneyline here, because it’s hard to believe Michigan can keep this streak going. Michigan’s won six straight against opponents ranging from Purdue to Penn State. They’ve won each of those games by four points or fewer. That can’t be sustainable, right?
Why we’re sticking with the spread today is that we think the sustainability question misses the mark. The other takeaway you could have from those last six games is that Michigan’s playing to its level of competition. The Wolverines haven’t beaten anybody by more than four points in well over a month now. Maybe that’s the important detail.
We don’t care if they win again or not. We just want Sparty to keep it within one possession.
Pick: Michigan State +3.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –83.41 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 91 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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