We’ll do Week Zero picks tomorrow, and we’ll at least have one for Iowa State vs. Kansas State.
Washington at Philadelphia
This is tough. Before we ran Heat Index, we were going to take the Nationals as a spot-based value play. Cade Cavalli’s been great so far, and his short-lived debut a few years ago has the hype toned way down from what it would be.
Heat Index, though, points out that the Phillies have been the best team in baseball the last six series going by wRC+ and FIP. The Nationals have been the second-worst. To be fair to the Nats, a lot of that is pitching, and Cavalli hasn’t been part of that. (Without Cavalli, the Nats would be the worst.) But you could call the Nats a league-average team in terms of heat, and Heat Index would still make the Phillies one of its two choices tonight. We’re going to roll with it.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –180. 0.43 units to win 0.24. Cavalli and Walker must start.
San Francisco at Milwaukee
No such qualms about Heat Index’s second choice. We’re resigned to the fact that Jose Quintana’s going to keep doing what he’s doing for however long he wears a Brewers uniform. Once he leaves, I’m sure it’ll fall apart. But when guys are on the Brewers, they produce. Science, go figure out what’s happening there.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –158. 0.38 units to win 0.24. Whisenhunt and Quintana must start.
World Series
Even more on the Tigers today. We like this price, and we like having Division Series teams be solid upside scenarios in our portfolio.
Pick: Detroit to win +1000. 4.00 units to win 40.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.25 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 620 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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