We had a nice mid-major Monday, sweeping our basketball picks for the second straight day. Two more tonight: One up north and one down south.
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Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State got a real big win over the weekend in Oxford. Now, they welcome a cruising Texas A&M who’s won five in a row and seven of eight.
It’s fair to favor Mississippi State here, but two and a half points is a lot. Kenpom has the Bulldogs only 51% likely to win, and that’s already baking in the second-best home-court advantage in the SEC. The Aggies have a winning record on the road this year, all against power conference teams. They’re one of the most experienced teams in the country. They’re playing the best basketball this group has ever played.
Is there a risk of A&M looking ahead to Tennessee this weekend? I don’t really think so. I’m not going to call Buzz Williams a top-tier coach in college basketball (he’s good, just not top tier), but I don’t think of him as a guy who overlooks small things, and in this SEC, big opportunities come often. A home game against Tennessee isn’t all that novel. Mississippi State, meanwhile, hasn’t won back-to-back games since beating South Carolina and Vanderbilt to open conference play.
Give us the Aggies. But we’ll gladly take those points.
Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Up in Madison, kenpom’s home-court advantage metric is not impressed with the Kohl Center crowd. It rates the Badgers’ edge as the second-smallest in the Big Ten, only barely ahead of Northwestern. I’m curious if this was always the case. Wisconsin used to have a reputation of being unbeatable at home. After that 2015 season, they had the third-best all-time home-court record in the country. Maybe this had more to do with scheduling, or with Bo Ryan’s approach, or with the team being a strong team overall. But kenpom’s home-court metric relies on the last few seasons for data, and Madison crowds didn’t have as much to cheer for these last few years as they usually do. I wonder if that number will improve going forward.
Even if it doesn’t, it’s easy to like Wisconsin at this number. The Badgers are rolling, have plenty to play for, and are up against a mercurial Illinois team. Maybe the Illini really show up. In half their conference games, they haven’t done that. Give us Bucky. We’ll give the book the points.
Pick: Wisconsin –4 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –80.18 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 85 single-game/race markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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