Today’s Best Bets: Bowl Game Moneyline Underdogs

Great day yesterday. Shoutout to USU and WSU for the points.


Louisville vs. Toledo

It is what we do.

Pick: Toledo to win +364. 3.43 units to win 12.49.

Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky

It is what we do.

Pick: Western Kentucky to win +110. 11.34 units to win 12.47.

UNLV vs. Ohio

It is what we do.

Pick: Ohio to win +220. 5.67 units to win 12.47.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –527.50 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,008 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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