First: Condolences if you got West Virginia at 3.5 last night. We dodged that bullet, landing 2.5 points ourselves, but that was entirely thanks to timing.
Second: We’re returning to a pair of overs tonight. I’m nervous about them. We have a good recent track record on overs, and that makes me worried I’m overly biased towards that play right now. Here, though, are the thoughts accompanying them:
Northwestern @ Ohio State
Jalen Leach is a big offensive loss for Northwestern, but he’s only one player, and I don’t think his absence makes Northwestern’s defense any better. I also don’t think he changes Northwestern’s pace. Kenpom has this a 142-point game over 65 possessions. Northwestern’s indeed one of the slower teams in the Big Ten, but they’ve only gone under that 65 number twice in conference play, and Ohio State’s never gone below it at all. With the Buckeye offense mostly strong of late, I like Northwestern to get into the 60’s and the Buckeyes to potentially push 80.
Pick: Over 142 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
USC @ Maryland
Here, kenpom’s a point ahead of the market total. Our default is to side with kenpom, and we especially like it on this game. USC’s played a slower-tempo game of late, partly thanks to whom they’ve played, but they’ve still scored points effectively. They’re one of the best shooting teams in the Big Ten. Maryland, meanwhile, keeps putting up big numbers, averaging 91.3 per game their last three times out. USC is better defensively than Rutgers and Iowa, but they’re not better on that end than Nebraska, and they play a faster tempo than the Huskers too. Give us points, Terps.
Pick: Over 154 (–117). 10.00 units to win 8.55.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –81.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 89 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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