The worst-case scenario did hit with our NFL futures, but we were prepared, and thankfully the Seahawks aren’t as big of favorites as we expected. We’ll have more on that later this week or next week. Might be tomorrow, might be the day of the game itself.
In happier news, we finally won another college basketball play. Thanks, Washington. One more of those today.
Louisville at Duke
We respect Pat Kelsey and his work at Louisville, but it’s hard to see a path for them tonight. I think the idea that Louisville is good (which is true!) is holding bettors back from this big a line. But Duke is really, really good, and there’s nothing about their 11-point road win against the Cards that they shouldn’t be able to repeat.
Pick: Duke –8.5 (–110). 3.46 units to win 3.15.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –601.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,048 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
