Only one over tonight. We’re weaning ourselves off of those. (They’re still hot, though.)
Houston at Texas Tech
I have no idea who’s going to win this game. What I do know is that kenpom has this total at 135 with a possession count of 60. That means either the market expects a game slower than 60 possessions (Houston’s done that a handful of times this year, but not regularly) or a lot of missed shots. These teams are strong offensively. They’re not always pretty offensively, but they’re strong.
Pick: Over 130.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Kansas at Colorado
I can’t help but buy in on Bill Self, at least for one more game. They showed life this weekend against Oklahoma State, and if elevation was an issue on the Utah trip, they should be a little more acclimated heading back to the heights. We’ve got a good team playing badly and a bad team playing well. We’re going to trust the good team to handle business.
Pick: Kansas –6.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –68.91 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 98 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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