The bad news is that Mick Abel was scratched last night during the rain delay, so that pick pushed even though the Phillies did, as we predicted, smash Bryce Elder into oblivion. The good news is that for the purposes of determining our unit, we can treat that as a pick that won. The bet pushed, but we now have a .583 win percentage across 36 picks using this “spot” approach. Against average odds of –121, that’s good for about a 6.5% return. This, in turn, informs our unit for today.
Our baseball unit, that is. NASCAR is a Hail Mary. They’re at a superspeedway, after all.
Toronto at Boston
Plenty of pitchers allow more home runs than Lucas Giolito. But few allow opponents to hit the ball harder than he does, and even in these three straight quality starts, he’s allowed exit velocities higher than his season-long average. Don’t buy that he’s all better.
Pick: Toronto to win –119. 6.34 units to win 5.33. Bassitt and Giolito must start.
Los Angeles at Kansas City
Shohei Ohtani’s a good pitcher but not a great one. Ben Casparius, on the other hand…
Casparius is obviously not Ohtani. Not in terms of physical gifts, and not in terms of what should be expected of him long-term. Over a career sample that’s now topped 60 innings, though, the guy has a 2.44 FIP. With the Dodgers playing well, this game not taking place on a Sunday, and Seth Lugo’s FIP and xERA portending a return to earth, this is a good price on the Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –152. 8.10 units to win 5.33. Ohtani and Lugo must start.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Also a good price? A much better baseball team in a matchup featuring comparable starting pitchers.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +154. 3.46 units to win 5.33. Luzardo and Schwellenbach must start.
Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart (NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta)
Noah Gragson drives a Ford, which we’re going to use as our starting point tonight given how dominant Fords were in qualifying and how good they’ve been the last few years at superspeedways across the board. Gragson’s also had enough success at superspeedways historically—including his Xfinity Series career—that it’s not outrageous to think he could win. Does he have better than 50% of an average chance? We tend towards thinking superspeedways are highly, highly random, though the sample’s never large enough to know for sure. In other words, though, we think he does.
Pick: Noah Gragson to win +6600. 6.06 units to win 399.96.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –398.14 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 429 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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