At the end of the day, recreational betting is entertainment, and while yesterday’s Daytona 500 was entertaining in its own right, it was really entertaining for those of us who bet Corey LaJoie at 125-to-1. For those that tailed our pick, I’m sorry it didn’t work out. Hopefully you had fun, like we did.
On the basketball court, we won both our picks, getting back within 100 units of even on the year. Let’s try to stay within that boundary.
Northern Iowa @ Murray State
First of all, prayers to those suffering from the flooding this weekend in Greater Appalachia. Terrifying and sad and all-around awful. One very insignificant effect of all that is that Murray State lost power yesterday, so this game’s been moved down to Nashville, where it’ll be played at Belmont in about 40 minutes.
I don’t know JaCobi Wood’s status tonight. He missed Tuesday’s game against UIC, and what I’ve seen indicates that was because of illness. Given his turnover rate, I’m not terribly worried about Murray State’s offense taking a huge step backwards if he misses another game.
Similarly, I’m not too concerned about the change in location. That affects home-court advantage, but it shouldn’t affect scoring, especially not in a negative fashion. From what I’ve seen, there shouldn’t be any fans there tonight, which could help (think NBA bubble). Also, few gyms in the country have seen a higher three-point shooting percentage this season than Belmont’s. That goes for all teams who’ve played there. The rims might be soft. I’m serious.
What we’re really thinking here, though, is that while Murray State does play a slow brand of basketball and did somehow manage a 49-possession game against Drake on February 4th, it’s hard to play a game that’s slower than 63 possessions, which is where kenpom has this headed. Murray State’s only done it in 40% of conference games. UNI’s only done it in 27% of conference games. Neither plays up-tempo basketball, but UNI’s pace is fairly average, and Murray’s isn’t that far from the norm.
Hopefully, the possession count is higher than 63 and we don’t have to worry about those rims. But those rims do give us a slight feeling of safety.
Pick: Over 134.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
McNeese @ Southeastern Louisiana
Kenpom has this one at seven, and there isn’t a lot of basketball tonight, and people know Will Wade coaches McNeese. Where am I going with this? I think there might be a bored–bettor effect with this spread.
To be clear, I wouldn’t be taking this if there was anything else I liked. This is not an ideal pick for us. But, we want to pick two games, because we headline these “Bets” not “Bet,” and I found more of an angle here than I could find on anything involving Arizona/Baylor, Duke/Virginia, or K-State/Utah. Fingers crossed.
Pick: Southeastern Louisiana +9 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –98.40 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 83 single-game/race markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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