Tough finish in IndyCar yesterday, but successful day besides that. Back to only baseball today.
Los Angeles at Milwaukee
We’re getting Yoshinobu Yamamoto at –126 odds against a team that’s only 60/40 to make the playoffs. Reactions to this weekend are, in the Dodgers’ case, overblown.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –126. 14.02 units to win 11.13. Yamamoto and Peralta must start.
Toronto at Chicago (AL)
Everywhere else? They seem pretty underblown to us. The Blue Jays keep rolling and now get to play the White Sox. That’s a good setup.
Pick: Toronto to win –157. 17.47 units to win 11.13. Berríos and Burke must start.
Cleveland at Houston
The Astros are also rolling and now play a Guardians team who 1) is on a ten-game skid and 2) burned just about as much bullpen yesterday as Houston did.
Pick: Houston to win –130. 14.46 units to win 11.12. Bibee and Gordon must start.
Philadelphia at San Francisco
For the final hot hand, Cristopher Sánchez hasn’t walked a batter in his last four starts. He’s thrown 28 innings in those appearances and struck out 25 batters.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –125. 13.91 units to win 11.13. Sánchez and Roupp must start.
World Series
With the Blue Jays past the Yankees, there isn’t a lot of dramatic movement currently happening, which has markets a little stagnant. There’s still value on the Mariners in the long haul, partly thanks to how good their October pitching staff should be.
Pick: Seattle to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
NLCS
There’s also plenty of value available on the Phillies, which is nice given their likelihood of being in the postseason favorite mix.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +490. 2.00 units to win 9.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –389.94 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 458 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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