I will say this regarding our college basketball performance this March:
I’m glad we didn’t put more units on it.
Thankfully, we’re above even now on MLB moneylines. Let’s try to keep it that way. One of those, two MLB futures, and one college basketball future, to keep convincing ourselves there’s a way out.
wpcode id=”26980″]
World Series
The Dodgers are very good. So good that they seem to have erased memories of how teams as good as these Dodgers usually play come October. There’s only so much you can control.
Where this gets really suspect is that it’s NL West teams we’re seeing undervalued. Maybe this is just a reflection of FanGraphs not having the Dodgers a full 100% likely to win the division. It’s probably some of that. But I also think the markets are acting as though these teams can’t get a Wild Card.
Pick: Arizona to win +3500. 2.00 units to win 70.00.
NLCS
One nice thing about betting futures right now: It’s early enough that markets haven’t bothered to move. It’s late enough that the results do make a little bit of a difference. The Giants are 2–1 so far, and that’s not meaningless.
Pick: San Francisco to win +4000. 2.00 units to win 80.00.
Washington at Toronto
We’re rolling with the Nationals again, because while they used a bit of bullpen yesterday on a travel day, the Blue Jays used Jeff Hoffman the last two days, and that should outweigh it. That’s not the basis of this—the basis is that FanGraphs is flashing positive EV—but it avoids any red flag.
Pick: Washington to win +146. 15.00 units to win 21.90. (Soroka and Francis must start.)
NCAA Tournament
Markets are through the roof on Duke, and I get it, and I think Duke’s going to get a favorable whistle on Saturday. I also know kenpom’s been high on Houston before and they haven’t broken through yet. But the value is good, and we have to take good value. Especially when there are so many vague and nebulous signs pointing away from it.
Pick: Houston to win +450. 1.00 unit to win 4.50.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –274.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 239 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
