Another nice day yesterday for Heat Index, bringing it to 6–0 over the last three days and a 12–8 overall record against average odds of –133 (that’s a 5.00% return). Did we give it enough time? Are we setting ourselves up for doom? We’ll find out.
Texas at Toronto
This is Heat Index’s second choice again, but it’s a good example of how much the market does weight vibes/recency/etc. at this point in the year. The market and narrative have been (reasonably) low on José Berríos. They should be high on Nathan Eovaldi. They’ve still got the Blue Jays more favored than the fundamentals would suggest (those would have it at maybe –106).
What we’re hoping is that the market isn’t going far enough.
Pick: Toronto to win –119. 0.68 units to win 0.57. Eovaldi and Berríos must start.
Atlanta at Cleveland
Moving to spot-based: We’re out of the mode where we automatically bet against Erick Fedde, but this is cheap for him pitching against a team still in the playoff race.
Pick: Cleveland to win –110. 1.17 units to win 1.06. Fedde and Allen must start.
Arizona at Colorado
This isn’t automatic either (Nabil Crismatt’s shown some encouraging signs in the minors and in his limited big-league opportunities), but if it were, you could do worse for a rule than betting against the Rockies with Antonio Senzatela on the hill.
Pick: Arizona to win –146. 1.56 units to win 1.07. Crismatt and Senzatela must start.
Anaheim at Sacramento
Heat Index’s first choice is again the A’s, and that does make us nervous, with the Angels coming off that Dodgers sweep and José Soriano kind of their backbone. That said, we’re getting the A’s at plus-odds, and the fact Heat Index is flagging this despite the Angels sweeping the Dodgers shows how badly they played over the five series preceding that one.
Pick: Sacramento to win +101. 0.57 units to win 0.58. Soriano and Springs must start.
San Diego at Los Angeles
Speaking of the Dodgers, we like the Padres at this price to split that series. Yu Darvish has been better than his ERA indicates, we’ve talked about Tyler Glasnow’s red flags before, and while the Dodgers tend to rock in August, we haven’t really been seeing that this year.
Pick: San Diego to win +119. 0.90 units to win 1.07. Darvish and Glasnow must start.
Seattle vs. New York (NL)
Finally, in Williamsport…
We get why the Mets made Clay Holmes a starter.
We think it might be maximizing his value.
But he’s not what they were hoping he’d be.
Pick: Seattle to win –121. 1.29 units to win 1.07. Gilbert and Holmes must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –488.57 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 597 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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