We didn’t get our 5–3 day yesterday, but we did profit on a 4–4 day. We’ll take it. Today’s baseball…
Cincinnati at Washington
Jake Irvin always scares me—he can get gritty—but Brady Singer enters this having pitched well before the All-Star Break, and the Nationals don’t appear to have repaired much over the All-Star Break, scoring just seven runs this weekend against the Padres. Given they weren’t expected to contend and aren’t much above .500, it’s easy to overlook the Reds, but to their credit, they’re only 2.5 games back of a playoff spot entering this week, and they just took two of three from a pretty good team in the Mets.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –121. 1.40 units to win 1.16. Singer and Irvin must start.
NL West
FanGraphs does not believe in the Diamondbacks rotation. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Ryne Nelson do not get it done for FanGraphs, which expects Arizona to compile only the 22nd-most fWAR from here through the rest of the regular season. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks—an even .500 after sweeping the Cardinals this weekend, and only two back of the +1800 Giants—flash the biggest value of anyone today using those FanGraphs probabilities.
150-to-1 is, of course, a longshot. But if the D-Backs make a run and the Dodgers do anything less than scorched-earth baseball, this will give us leverage.
Pick: Arizona to win +15000. 2.00 units to win 300.00.
AL East
Elsewhere in division markets, odds imply the Yankees should be expected to be more aggressive than the Blue Jays at the deadline. Is that true? If anyone recognizes the need to seize opportunities when they’re there, we’d think it’d be Toronto.
Pick: Toronto to win +140. 2.00 units to win 2.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.46 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 508 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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