Another loss yesterday, but we’ve got an interesting development we’re tracking with MLB totals. Let’s get to it.
Anaheim at Houston
This is the system play. They’ve been streaky, both lately and historically, and we’ve lost two in a row. To make a case for this one: Kochanowicz’s FIP and xERA haven’t been as good as his ERA. Blanco’s has. Also, it’s the Astros playing the Angels. In most of recent memory, that ends well for the Astros.
Pick: Houston to win –142. 15.00 units to win 10.56. Kochanowicz and Blanco must start.
MLB Unders
We wrote about this in 3 Thoughts, but offense has been significantly down this week. I don’t know if it’s a blip or something real, but we’re going to take our chances by placing two units on each under tonight. I don’t know if this is going to be a one-day thing or something bigger. It’ll depend how both the stats and the bets progress. We did test it a little the last two or three nights. Results were encouraging.
Pick: KC/CLE u7 –115. 2.00 to win 1.74.
Pick: PIT/CIN u8.5 –120. 2.00 to win 1.67.
Pick: TOR/BAL u8 –110. 2.00 to win 1.82.
Pick: ATL/TB u9 –104. 2.00 to win 1.92.
Pick: SF/NYY u8 –110. 2.00 to win 1.82
Pick: WSH/MIA u8 –105. 2.00 to win 1.90.
Pick: BOS/CHW u8 –117. 2.00 to win 1.71.
Pick: LAA/HOU u9 –120. 2.00 to win 1.67.
Pick: DET/MIN u8 –115. 2.00 to win 1.74.
Pick: PHI/STL u8 –120. 2.00 to win 1.67.
Pick: COL/SD u7.5 –115. 2.00 to win 1.74.
Pick: TEX/SEA u6.5 +100. 2.00 to win 2.00.
Pick: NYM/ATH u10 –115. 2.00 to win 1.74.
Pick: CHC/LAD u8 –115. 2.00 to win 1.74.
Pick: MIL/ARZ u9 –110. 2.00 to win 1.82.
ALCS
The Angels are now 8–4. Mike Trout’s hitting the ball well. Kyren Paris and Logan O’Hoppe have been great out of the gate. The AL West, as we keep saying, is an open race.
This is 90-to-1, so it’s not like we’re calling Anaheim a contender. But the possibility’s big enough to include them in the portfolio when the value’s good.
Pick: Anaheim to win +9000. 2.00 units to win 180.00.
NL West
For as hot as the Dodgers started…the Giants are percentage points ahead of them heading into this weekend. We don’t want to overblow that, but again, it’s enough to justify a longshot.
Our portfolio now has at least something on 19 different teams, with both a regular season and postseason future on five of those 19. The process remains: Prioritize teams we don’t have anything on. Then, prioritize teams where we only have a regular season or a postseason future. Soon, we’ll go beyond that and it’ll start turning into more of a conversation about how to maximize profit probability while still maximizing value, but for now, it’s early enough that the approach remains straightforward.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2000. 2.00 units to win 40.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –115.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 258 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
